MONEYBALL: plataforma analítica com inteligência artificial para predição de probabilidades e avaliação de valor em apostas de futebol

Abstract

Football is undoubtedly the most popular and influential sport in the world, stirring passions and generating a direct impact on the economy, media and culture. In recent years, this scenario has paved the way for the explosion of the sports betting market, especially with the advancement of technology and the massive presence of so-called "Bets". In 2025, for example, more than 90% of the clubs in the Brazilian Championship Series A will have bookmakers as master sponsors. These companies use sophisticated statistical models and algorithms to define the odds for each sporting event, adjusting them according to market behavior and always incorporating their profit margin. Thus, even when a result seems "fair", the bookmaker tends to pay less than the real probability of the event. This model ensures that, in the long run, the bookmaker has a mathematical advantage. In this environment, many bettors enter motivated by their passion for the sport or because they believe they have a high understanding of the sport, but in fact mathematical and statistical knowledge outweighs sports knowledge to win these Bets. It is estimated that only about 3% of bettors worldwide are able to consistently make a profit in this market. Therefore, the objective of this work is to offer an intelligent platform for analyzing competitions, teams and results aimed at sports betting on football using data analysis technology and artificial intelligence to find potential value in bets, betting with reason, calculations and real probabilities before the emotion, aiming to actually make a profit rather than simply getting bets right.