Uma discussão de modelos matemáticos utilizados para obtenção de projeções estatísticas em pandemias: exemplos de modelos aplicáveis ao covid-19

Abstract

This work aims to discuss some mathematical models with potential uses in the static projections of some pandemics. Analyzing the behaviors of these models and comparing them with some characteristics in the behavior of covid-19. In this work we will address some characteristics of epidemiological models such as: the SIS model (susceptible, infected) the behavior of its equations and the characteristics of its class transfers: the SIR model (susceptible, infected, recovered), which aims to analyze the class of recovered individuals, individuals who acquired immunity after contact with the virus: SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) that analyzes the behavior of the class where individuals had contact with the virus, but are not considered infected, as they do not present a face viral: and finally, the MSEIR model (immune, susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model whose characteristic is to assume passive immunity, immunity derived from the contact of the mother with the virus, passed on to the newborn.