Modelagem de distribuição de Coleodactylus meridionalis (BOULENGER, 1888) no Piauí: fatores ambientais e implicações para conservação

Abstract

This study investigated the potential distribution of Coleodactylus meridionalis in the state of Piauí, Brazil, using Species Distribution Modeling and different algorithms and bioclimatic variables. The models showed good predictive performance and indicated higher environmental suitability mainly in humid, mountainous, and ecotonal regions between the Caatinga, Cerrado, and forest formations, highlighting the influence of the climatic conditions considered in the modeling on the potential distribution of the species. The results contribute to expanding knowledge about the potential distribution of C. meridionalis in Piauí and allow the identification of areas that may be prioritized for future research and monitoring actions. The occurrence of higher suitability values in environmentally heterogeneous regions also reinforces the importance of considering environmental variation when understanding the species' distribution. Although aspects such as humidity, shading, and leaf-litter accumulation are described in the literature as relevant characteristics of the habitat of C. meridionalis, these variables were not directly evaluated in this study and, therefore, their influence cannot be directly attributed to the modeling results. Likewise, gaps remain regarding the influence of land use, habitat fragmentation, and biotic interactions. In this regard, field expeditions to validate areas of higher suitability and the incorporation of environmental variables at more local scales may contribute to a deeper understanding of the species' ecology and to the development of biodiversity conservation strategies in the state of Piauí.