Modelagem matemática e epidemiologia: análise sobre a dinâmica de propagação e controle de doenças infectocontagiosas

Abstract

Mathematical modeling is a way of representing a natural aspect through appropriate mathematical language. The general objective of this research consists of, through the analysis of academic-scientific productions, understanding how the application of mathematical modeling can contribute to the study of the dynamics of propagation and control of infectious diseases in the Brazilian context. Qualitative approach research, descriptions as a systematic literature review. Eight (8) scientific productions (articles and monographs) published in the last 6 years were examined and verified, written in Portuguese, addressing concepts relating to relevant epidemiological mathematical models throughout each study, specifically on diseases caused by HIV and by SARS-CoV-2, information described in the summary, results and conclusions of each production. The results demonstrate that the SI and SIR models represent an important tool in the study of these infections. Furthermore, each model was chosen in accordance with the characteristics of the disease. It is concluded that mathematical modeling contributes to the study of the dynamics of propagation and control of infectious diseases, as it can describe the growth or decline of diseases, contributing to consistent decision-making in the field of public health.